Money Psychology 2: Luck & risk
Every outcome in life is guided by forces other than individual efforts. But the role of random luck and risk that swayed those actions, in one way or the other, too often goes overlooked.
For example, Bill Dougall, in 1968, petitioned the Lakeside School Mothers’ Club to use the proceeds from its annual rummage sale to lease a computer.
Most graduate schools did not have a computer as advanced. And Bill Gates thus, had access to an advanced computer when he was 13 years old. His classmate, Paul Allen was also obsessed with the school’s computer. They toyed away with it at their leisure. A few years later, Microsoft was born.
In 1968, there were about 303 million high-school-age people in the world. And only about 300 of them attended Lakeside School.
Back at the school, there was a third student: Kent Evans. He was as enthusiastic and brilliant, but not as lucky. Gates considered him the best student in the class. They were best friends. But Evans died in a mountaineering accident before he graduated high school.
Luck and risk play a similar role. You can’t understand who made a bad decision, but was fortunate because of someone else’s action. Or if someone made a good move, but the time was unfortunate.
You're one person in a game with seven billion other people and infinite moving parts. Don’t follow “Do what she did - avoid what he did.”
Nothing is as good or as bad as it seems.
[The Psychology of Money: Lessons 2 of 18]
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